After US Supreme Court Verdict, Will India’s Russian Oil Imports Become Easier? Impact on Donald Trump’s Trade Policy

After US Supreme Court Verdict, Will India’s Russian Oil Imports Become Easier? Impact on Donald Trump’s Trade Policy

Following a recent ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States, new possibilities appear to be emerging regarding India’s purchase of Russian oil. Analysts believe the decision may limit the trade policy options of U.S. President Donald Trump, potentially reducing pressure on India over its energy ties with Russia.
📊 What Did Analysts Say?
Sarang Shidore, Director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said during CNBC’s Inside India program that India is likely to maintain its strategic relationship with Russia, including in the energy sector.
While he indicated that imports may see some reduction, a complete halt appears unlikely.
According to energy data firm Kpler, India has imported approximately 1.16 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil so far in February, lower than the 2025 average of 1.71 mbd.
⚖ How the Court Ruling Changes the Equation
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the President’s authority to impose sweeping import tariffs is limited.
According to Muyu Xu, Senior Research Analyst at Kpler, India could maintain Russian oil imports in the range of 0.8 to 1.0 mbd following the ruling.
🔙 What Happened Earlier?
Last year, Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchase of Russian crude oil. This pushed total tariffs on certain Indian exports to the U.S. to nearly 50%.
Under an interim trade deal, tariffs were later reduced to 18%. On February 6, an executive order removed the additional 25% tariff.
Notably, the joint U.S.–India statement did not include any formal commitment by India to completely stop purchasing Russian oil. It only expressed intent to significantly increase energy purchases from the United States.
🛢 India’s Energy Strategy
According to Alexandra Herman, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, India’s energy strategy is fundamentally driven by price competitiveness and supply diversification.
She noted that U.S. crude oil is unlikely to fully replace Russian barrels in India’s energy mix.
📌 Conclusion
The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling has introduced a new balance in the global energy market.
For India, a complete halt to Russian oil imports appears impractical, while maintaining strong trade ties with the United States remains equally important. In the coming months, India’s energy policy is likely to reflect a strategic balancing act — aligning diplomacy, trade, and energy security simultaneously.

Author: K k sanjay